Corporate Probability of Default: A Single-Index Hazard Model Approach

A hybrid model for estimating the probability of default of corporate customers

Credit risk estimation is a key determinant for the success of financial institutions. The aim of this paper is presenting a new hybrid model for estimating the probability of default of corporate customers in a commercial bank. This hybrid model is developed as a combination of Logit model and Neural Network to benefit from the advantages of both linear and non-linear models. For model verific...

A Default Probability Estimation Model:

On the assumption that asset value of a company is the sum of the total amount of current price of stock and debt value, estimation was made with the first moment and second moment concerning a mean value and variance of the sum. We also assume a new variable for which fluctuation during an evaluation period conforms to these moments and follow geometric Brownian motion. Then we construct a def...

Lifetime Probability Of Default Modeling For Hungarian Corporate Debt Instruments

The paper attempts to provide forecast methodological framework and concrete models to estimate long run probability of default term structure for Hungarian corporate debt instruments, in line with IFRS 9 requirements. Long run probability of default and expected loss can be estimated by various methods and has fifty-five years of history in literature. After studying literature and empirical m...

Hedging of Credit Default Swaptions in a Hazard Process Model

The Probability Approach to Default Probabilities

The probability approach to uncertainty and modeling is applied to default probability estimation. This issue has attracted attention as banks contemplate the requirements of Basel II’s IRB rules. Nicholas M. Kiefer proposes the fomal introduction of expert information into quantitative analysis. An application treating the incorporation of expert information on the default probability is consi...